Hello IGWN community,
I have developed an independent theoretical framework (Variational Efficiency Framework, VEF) that predicts a uniform efficiency degradation of propagating waves. For gravitational waves this manifests as a simple multiplicative damping of the strain amplitude during the ringdown phase:
h_obs = η_eff × h_GR
δ_GW = 1 − η_eff = 1 − 1/(1 + z_eff)
with η_eff = exp(−d_eff / cτ) and cτ = 4.476 Gpc (fixed by the photon sector).
For the specific effective distance of GW250114 in the folded VEF solution (d_eff = 301 Mpc), this yields:
- z_eff ≈ 0.06956
- η_eff ≈ 0.93496
- δ_GW ≈ 6.5 % damping
This is a clean, falsifiable prediction on the ringdown only and requires no additional free parameters.
I have prepared:
- Independent MATLAB verification script (v12.1) that reproduces every number from first principles (no tuning)
- Exact closed-form equations and the redshift-distance matrix from the thesis preprint
All files and the current preprint (thesis_V_12.pdf, dated today) are available here:
I would greatly value feedback from the parameter-estimation and ringdown analysis experts:
- Is this format useful for direct comparison with existing GW250114 ringdown posterior samples?
- Are there preferred ways to fold an alternative efficiency scalar into the current pipelines?
- Any suggestions before I finalize a GWOSC Community Catalog submission (planned once the paper is under peer review)?
Looking forward to your thoughts and any constructive criticism. Happy to provide additional runs or clarifications.
Best regards,
Chris Morgan
(Independent researcher – Variational Efficiency Framework)